Personal thoughts - November 2023

Another month has passed, and the market had been action-packed. In October, the S&P fell to the definition of a correction (-10%) and sentiments reached a low. VIX went above 20, but did not show signs of any panic, with orderly selling. At the bottom, S&P retreated to 4110. There was a FED meeting and after the decision to keep rates on hold, the mood shifted 180 degrees. The index shot up over 7 consecutive days of gains, and as of writing, the 9th day ended with 1.5% jump, closing at 4415 as of today.

Since the recent low, the index had gained ~ 7% in less than 2 weeks. Forward PE is 19.37, back to where we started last month. One really has to be in the market most of the time, if not always. You just have to be there when "lightning strikes". The consequence is under performance.

Bond market calmed somewhat, with 10 years yield falling from 5.1% peaks to settle around 4.6 levels. With S&P going up so sharply so quickly, it is holding me back from adding significantly. Adding to bonds may be an alternative at current levels, though prices had risen a little from the bottom. With the assumption that interest rates had peaked, I've intention of shifting my short term funds to longer duration bonds.

Market again doesn't look cheap, leaning on the wrong side of valuation. But the probability of ending the year higher is high due to seasonality and sentiment factors. I have to resolve to hold my positions as I have still some cash buffers. In the past month, I've added CPF cash via Endowus into the S&P fund. I didn't manage to fully deploy as the V-shape bounce caught me by surprise. I have to remind myself, that getting the timing right is near impossible!

Separately, I'll continue my DCA into IBRK SWRD, Endowus, Lion Global funds and iFast (MoneyOwl). Intended to do the same for S&P500 SPXS, but was holding back regrettably. As the index continue to charge higher, I have to bite the bullet, close an eye and keep buying.


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